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Prediction for CME (2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-17T23:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26068/-1
CME Note: Halo CME seen primarily to the southwest in association with two separate M5.0+ class solar flares and a strong eruption from Active Region 3633 (S25W73). The eruption is proceeded by another eruption which is impressive in itself; the main eruption starting around 23:18Z as seen in SDO 131 imagery is characterized by a very large scale brightening near Active Region 3363 with rising plasma along the southeastern portion of the active region, widely and quickly moving and opening magnetic field lines seen in SDO 193/171, and a strong post-eruptive arcade signature characterized by intense, regional brightening along the southwest limb in SDO 131. Associated with SEP events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A. Arrival signature: A jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 440 km/s, accompanied by a jump in B total to just under 12 nT, an increase in density and rotation of magnetic field components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-20T16:07Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-19T18:28Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2023-07-18T03:15:27Z
## Message ID: 20230718-AL-012
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2023-07-17T23:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~1388 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 53 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 32/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-07-20T04:14Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2023-07-19T00:08Z, and STEREO A at 2023-07-19T16:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-07-19T18:28Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
   
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230718_021500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M5.0 flare with ID 2023-07-17T23:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-07-17T23:33Z (see notifications 20230717-AL-004 and 20230718-AL-001) and M5.7 flare with ID 2023-07-17T23:37:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-07-18T00:06Z (see notifications 20230717-AL-005 and 20230718-AL-003) from Active Region 3363 (S25W73), SEP at STEREO A with ID 2023-07-18T00:53:00-SEP-001 (see notification(s) 20230718-AL-006, 20230718-AL-007), SEP at SOHO with ID 2023-07-18T01:12:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20230718-AL-011), and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2023-07-18T01:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20230718-AL-008 and 20230718-AL-009).

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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Lead Time: 60.87 hour(s)
Difference: 21.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-07-18T03:15Z

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